September 2025 US auto sales are projected to reach 1.23 million units, according to S&P Global Mobility. This would translate to an estimated sales pace of 16.2 million units (seasonally adjusted annual rate: SAAR), aligned with the 16.1-million-unit pace in August and reflective of the sales bounce realized over the third quarter.
A surge in battery electric vehicle (BEV) sales — ahead of the September 30 consumer EV tax credit expiration — is a key driver of the Q3 sales growth.
“US auto sales in September are expected to sustain the growth realized over the previous two months, setting up Q3 2025 as the best growth quarter of 2025,” said Chris Hopson, principal analyst at S&P Global Mobility.
“The pace of demand for the quarter has been supported primarily by a run up in BEV sales in advance of the September 30th expiration of federal EV incentives. In addition, automakers have so far managed the potential impact of US tariffs better than expected, helping to avoid a rise in vehicle prices for consumers.”
Still, S&P Global Mobility expects that auto demand levels will moderate towards the end of the year, given the current new vehicle affordability issues, lower BEV sales volumes, and expected economic slowdown over the next few quarters.
US auto sales in the fourth quarter are expected to be below the strong Q4 2024 result, with full-year 2025 volume estimated at 16.02 million units.
Source: spglobal