The Dutch car market is expected to remain near historically low levels through 2026, with only 361,000 new passenger cars and 40,000 light commercial vehicles projected to be registered next year, according to forecasts released Thursday by industry associations BOVAG and RAI Vereniging.
The outlook, based on annual research by S&P Global, shows almost no improvement from 2025, when 367,000 new cars and 22,800 light commercial vehicles are expected to be registered. The associations said the market recovery that began after the COVID-19 years has now stalled amid weak economic growth, political uncertainty, and fading consumer confidence.
“The Dutch car market will remain stagnant next year,” the report said, citing slow growth in purchasing power, limited economic expansion, and uncertainty surrounding the Tweede Kamer elections on October 29. The Dutch economy is forecast to grow only 1.4 percent in 2026, while global tensions continue to weigh on consumer and business sentiment.
The phaseout of government incentives is expected to slow the shift toward electric vehicles. Starting in 2026, the benefit-in-kind tax rate for all company cars will be standardized at 22 percent, ending the lower rate that had encouraged electric vehicle purchases.
“This will lead to a temporary shift toward plug-in hybrids (PHEVs), while sales of fully electric cars will slightly decline,” BOVAG and RAI Vereniging said. Despite the setback, the Netherlands will remain among Europe’s leading markets for EVs and continue to attract new brands introducing electric models.
Sales of light commercial vehicles are expected to remain well below normal levels. About 40,000 vans are projected to be registered in 2026 — far fewer than the typical annual volume of around 70,000.
The continued weakness stems from the 2024 change to the BPM tax, which ended the exemption for combustion-engine vans. Many business owners accelerated purchases before the change, causing a sharp drop in registrations in 2025 and only a limited rebound in 2026.
BOVAG represents more than 8,000 companies in the mobility sector, including car and truck dealers, rental firms, repair shops, and bicycle and motorcycle businesses. Together, its members generate about 90 billion euros in annual revenue and employ more than 85,000 people.
The Koninklijke RAI Vereniging represents over 700 manufacturers and importers of cars, trucks, trailers, motorcycles, bicycles, and related equipment.
Source: nltimes