Conventional wisdom in the crude oil market is that producers such as OPEC+ largely determine the price by altering output levels to achieve a desired outcome.
That shibboleth was challenged in 2025 by China, which used its status as the world's biggest oil importer to provide an effective price floor and ceiling by either increasing or decreasing the volume of crude it sent to storage tanks.
Production cuts in 2022 by OPEC+, which groups the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies led by Russia, did shore up prices. Those gains faded once it began reversing the cuts in April this year. Now, facing a looming oil glut, OPEC+ has decided to sit tight and hold production levels steady in the first quarter of next year.
That leaves China to mop up the excess.
What China does in 2026 is now the biggest known unknown in crude markets. Other participants are likely to set their strategies in response to Beijing.
China doesn't release public information on its strategic or commercial stockpiles, making it challenging not only to assess physical flows, but also to determine what policies are likely to be followed.
What was clear in 2025 is that China was buying more crude than it needed for domestic consumption and exports of refined products.
China does not disclose the volumes of crude flowing into or out of its strategic and commercial stockpiles, but an estimate can be made by subtracting refinery throughput from the total crude available from imports and domestic output.
Source : Reuters