The International Monetary Fund again edged its 2026 global growth forecast higher on Monday as businesses and economies adapt to US tariffs that have eased in recent months and a continued AI investment boom that has fueled asset wealth and expectations of productivity gains.
The IMF in its World Economic Outlook, opens new tab update forecast global GDP growth at 3.3% in 2026, up 0.2 percentage point from its last estimate in October. That's even with 3.3% growth in 2025, which will also beat the October estimate by 0.1 percentage point, the IMF said.
The global crisis lender forecast 2027 growth at 3.2%, unchanged from the previous forecast. It has revised global growth rates higher since last July in response to trade deals that have reduced President Donald Trump's tariff rates that peaked in April 2025.
“We find that global growth remains quite resilient,” IMF chief economist Pierre-olivier Gourinchas told reporters, adding that the Fund's 2025 and 2026 growth forecasts now exceed predictions made in October 2024, before Trump was elected to a second term.
“So, in a sense, the global economy is shaking off the trade and tariff disruptions of 2025 and is coming out ahead of what we were expecting before it all started,” Gourinchas said.
He said businesses have been able to adapt to higher US tariff rates by
rerouting supply chains, while trade agreements have lowered some duties and China has shifted exports to non-us markets. The latest IMF forecasts assume an effective US tariff rate of 18.5% down from about 25% in the Fund’s April 2025 forecast.
The IMF estimated US growth for 2026 at 2.4%, up 0.3 percentage point from October, due in part to a big push from massive investment in artificial intelligence infrastructure including data centers, powerful AI chips and power. The IMF edged its 2027 growth forecast a tenth of a point lower to 2.0%.
The IMF also said technology investment was boosting activity in Spain, which saw 0.3 percentage point upgrade to its 2026 GDP forecast to 2.3%, and in Britain, where the IMF kept its forecast unchanged at 1.3% for 2026.
Source: pressreader