While December saw some localized price adjustments in international markets, it is critical to look beyond the surface of US Dollar-denominated charts.
Due to the notable strengthening of the Thai Baht, natural rubber prices in local currency (THB) have remained fundamentally firm. While local prices experienced a very slight pullback, this movement is minimal compared to the perceived "slight decline" in US currency, which is primarily a result of exchange rate appreciation rather than a drop in intrinsic value. In reality, the domestic price floor remains resilient and continues to support an upward long-term trend. The resilience of the market is best evidenced by the Malaysian sector, where, despite the broader “consolidation” narrative, SMR-20 and Latex prices actually increased by 2.08% and 2.35% respectively. This upward movement in a key producing hub confirms that the underlying global demand is outstripping supply, signaling that the current consolidation is indeed a launchpad for the next price rally.
The market is currently in a period of healthy consolidation. Rather than a bearish reversal, we are observing a "cumulation pullback", a strategic accumulation phase following the strong price gains seen earlier this year. This correction provides a necessary foundation for the market to stabilize and build liquidity before the anticipated rise in the near future.
Latest reports from ANRPC member nations suggest that global NR production is anticipated to increase modestly by 1.4% in 2025. While demand figures show a marginal adjustment of -0.7% in the latest reporting, market sentiment remains resilient, particularly amid recovery signals in the tyre industry.
The current market behaviour is a classic "breather" before the low-production "wintering" season (February–May). As supply naturally tightens in the coming months, this period of accumulation in December 2025 ensures that the market is well-positioned for the rise in rubber prices seen in early 2026.
Source: ANRPC