Asian share markets and U.S. stock futures tumbled on Monday as fears of a global trade war led investors to ramp up bets on the risk of recession and a U.S. rate cut as early as May. [MKTS/GLOB]

Oil prices were down nearly 2% on Friday, and on track for the worst week in months over U.S. President Donald Trump’s new tariffs, stoking concerns that a global trade war could hurt oil demand.

The U.S. trade deficit narrowed in February, but the level of imports remained elevated after businesses front-loaded goods to avoid higher prices from tariffs, keeping trade on track to be a drag on economic growth in the first quarter.

UBS analysts warned that the new U.S. tariff policy could impose a significant economic burden, estimating that the latest measures amount to “an over $700 billion tax on the U.S. consumer assuming tariffs are fully passed through.” 

Trump’s "liberation day" reciprocal tariffs turned out to be much harsher than expected, stoking the possibility of an all-out trade war and a new inflationary pulse, but against this uncertain backdrop, Citi analysts continue to believe a softer labor market will sway the Federal Reserve to deliver five rate cuts this year. 

U.S. job growth likely slowed in March amid mass firings of public sector workers to slash federal government spending and reluctance by businesses to increase hiring because of import tariffs that have put the economy’s health in peril.