Oil prices edged higher on Tuesday, with gains capped by rising supplies and caution over whether the pause in the U.S.-China trade war will lead to a longer-term deal.

Goldman Sachs cut its recession forecast for the U.S. to 35% from 45%, the first major brokerage to do so, after a temporary tariff truce with China boosted hopes of some easing in the global trade war.

International travel spending in the United States is expected to decline about 7%, or $12.5 billion, in 2025 as politics and a strong dollar prompt foreign visitors to opt for other destinations, according to the World Travel and Tourism Council.

The dollar retreated slightly on Tuesday but held on to most of the previous session’s gains on lingering optimism over a tariff deal between the United States and China, which tapped the brakes on a trade war between the world’s two largest economies.

Japanese real wages decreased for a third consecutive month in March, squeezed by relentless inflation although consumer spending beat expectations, government data showed on Friday.

China’s General Administration of Customs released data on Friday showing a 21% decrease in goods shipped to the U.S. in April compared to the previous year.